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2012 House · FL-9

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 612 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 40.3%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 62.52% · Republican 37.48%

D+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 40.3 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 62.519 − 37.481 = 25.038
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (25.038) = -20.537
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.537| = 20.537

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 4991 (538 database).