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2012 House · FL-2

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 770 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 47.4%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.24% · Republican 52.70%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 47.4 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.236 − 52.696 = -5.460
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (-5.460) = 4.760
  4. Absolute miss = |4.760| = 4.760

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 4984 (538 database).