Skip to content

2012 House · CT-5

National Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 45%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 45.28%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 45 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.333 − 45.276 = 3.057
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (3.057) = -9.057
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.057| = 9.057

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52271, race ID 4981 (538 database).