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2010 House · MO-4

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 50.43%

R+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.114 − 50.427 = -5.313
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.313) = 5.313
  4. Absolute miss = |5.313| = 5.313

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52190, race ID 4689 (538 database).