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2010 House · WI-8

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 415 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.12% · Republican 54.77%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.123 − 54.765 = -9.642
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-9.642) = 8.642
  4. Absolute miss = |8.642| = 8.642

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52174, race ID 4894 (538 database).