2010 House · WI-7
We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 46%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.43% · Republican 52.11%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 44.427 − 52.106 = -7.679
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.679) = 0.678
- Absolute miss = |0.678| = 0.678
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52167, race ID 4893 (538 database).