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2010 House · WA-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 590 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.85% · Republican 45.15%

D+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.852 − 45.148 = 9.704
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (9.704) = -6.704
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.704| = 6.704

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52162, race ID 4883 (538 database).