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2010 House · WA-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 639 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 52.05%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.948 − 52.052 = -4.104
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-4.104) = -2.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.897| = 2.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52158, race ID 4882 (538 database).