2010 House · VA-9
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 608 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.41% · Republican 51.21%
R+4.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 46.407 − 51.213 = -4.806
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-4.806) = 3.806
- Absolute miss = |3.806| = 3.806
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52140, race ID 4872 (538 database).