2010 House · VA-5
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 524 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.99% · Republican 50.81%
R+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 46.988 − 50.812 = -3.824
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-3.824) = -4.176
- Absolute miss = |-4.176| = 4.176
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52127, race ID 4868 (538 database).