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2010 House · VA-2

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 490 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 42%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.45% · Republican 53.12%

R+10.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 42 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.451 − 53.124 = -10.673
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-10.673) = 9.674
  4. Absolute miss = |9.674| = 9.674

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52120, race ID 4865 (538 database).