2010 House · UT-3
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 19% · Republican 67%
R+48.0
The certified result
Democrat 22.94% · Republican 72.33%
R+49.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 19 − 67 = -48.00
- Actual margin = 22.942 − 72.325 = -49.383
- Signed miss = -48.00 − (-49.383) = 1.383
- Absolute miss = |1.383| = 1.383
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52118, race ID 4862 (538 database).