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2010 House · UT-1

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 22% · Republican 67%

R+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.93% · Republican 69.19%

R+45.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 22 − 67 = -45.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.925 − 69.194 = -45.269
  3. Signed miss = -45.00 − (-45.269) = 0.268
  4. Absolute miss = |0.268| = 0.268

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52118, race ID 4860 (538 database).