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2010 House · TX-17

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 52%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.57% · Republican 61.80%

R+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 52 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.572 − 61.802 = -25.230
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-25.230) = 13.230
  4. Absolute miss = |13.230| = 13.230

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52110, race ID 4844 (538 database).