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2010 House · SD-1

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.89% · Republican 48.12%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.891 − 48.119 = -2.228
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.228) = -2.773
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.773| = 2.773

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52087, race ID 4818 (538 database).