2010 House · SC-5
PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 49%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.81% · Republican 55.12%
R+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 44.810 − 55.121 = -10.311
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-10.311) = 0.311
- Absolute miss = |0.311| = 0.311
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52081, race ID 4816 (538 database).