2010 House · RI-1
Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 250 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.54% · Republican 44.49%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.536 − 44.487 = 6.049
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.049) = -0.049
- Absolute miss = |-0.049| = 0.049
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52071, race ID 4810 (538 database).