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2010 Governor · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26.2% · Republican 25.5%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 23.05% · Republican 33.57%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.2 − 25.5 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 23.049 − 33.571 = -10.522
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (-10.522) = 11.222
  4. Absolute miss = |11.222| = 11.222

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52071, race ID 1302 (538 database).