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2010 House · PA-17

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 28%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.50% · Republican 44.50%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 28 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.501 − 44.499 = 11.002
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (11.002) = 18.999
  4. Absolute miss = |18.999| = 18.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 19.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52069, race ID 4807 (538 database).