2010 House · PA-11
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 39%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.30% · Republican 54.70%
R+9.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 45.299 − 54.701 = -9.402
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (-9.402) = 17.401
- Absolute miss = |17.401| = 17.401
The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52046, race ID 4801 (538 database).