2010 House · PA-10
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 47%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.82% · Republican 55.18%
R+10.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 47 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 44.823 − 55.177 = -10.354
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.354) = 1.353
- Absolute miss = |1.353| = 1.353
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52046, race ID 4800 (538 database).