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2010 House · PA-6

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 642 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 54%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.90% · Republican 57.10%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 54 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.898 − 57.102 = -14.204
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-14.204) = 4.205
  4. Absolute miss = |4.205| = 4.205

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52035, race ID 4796 (538 database).