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2010 House · OR-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 601 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 45.96%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.249 − 45.957 = 5.292
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (5.292) = -15.292
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.292| = 15.292

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52020, race ID 4790 (538 database).