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2010 House · OR-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.75% · Republican 41.94%

D+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.746 − 41.944 = 12.802
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.802) = -3.802
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.802| = 3.802

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52017, race ID 4786 (538 database).