2010 House · NY-24
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 632 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.26% · Republican 43.19%
D+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 45.255 − 43.185 = 2.070
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.070) = 2.930
- Absolute miss = |2.930| = 2.930
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51978, race ID 4743 (538 database).