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2010 House · NJ-3

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 292 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.32% · Republican 50.03%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.321 − 50.027 = -2.706
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.706) = 3.707
  4. Absolute miss = |3.707| = 3.707

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51934, race ID 4706 (538 database).