Skip to content

2010 House · NJ-6

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 647 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.74% · Republican 43.71%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.745 − 43.707 = 11.038
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.038) = -4.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.038| = 4.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51933, race ID 4709 (538 database).