Skip to content

2010 House · NJ-3

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 40%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.32% · Republican 50.03%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 40 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.321 − 50.027 = -2.706
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-2.706) = -0.293
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.293| = 0.293

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51931, race ID 4706 (538 database).