Skip to content

2010 House · NJ-2

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 20% · Republican 57%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.93% · Republican 65.50%

R+34.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 20 − 57 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.930 − 65.498 = -34.568
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-34.568) = -2.432
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.432| = 2.432

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51931, race ID 4705 (538 database).