2010 House · NJ-1
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 22%
D+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.19% · Republican 34.80%
D+28.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 22 = 41.00
- Actual margin = 63.194 − 34.803 = 28.391
- Signed miss = 41.00 − (28.391) = 12.609
- Absolute miss = |12.609| = 12.609
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51931, race ID 4704 (538 database).