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2010 House · ND-1

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.08% · Republican 54.92%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.079 − 54.921 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-9.842) = -0.158
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.158| = 0.158

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51915, race ID 4762 (538 database).