2010 House · NC-11
GQR · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 39%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.34% · Republican 45.66%
D+8.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 54.344 − 45.656 = 8.688
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (8.688) = 6.312
- Absolute miss = |6.312| = 6.312
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51909, race ID 4759 (538 database).