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2010 House · NC-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.69% · Republican 49.47%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.686 − 49.467 = -0.781
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.781) = -4.219
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.219| = 4.219

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51897, race ID 4750 (538 database).