Skip to content

2010 House · MN-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 584 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 42%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.34% · Republican 44.05%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.340 − 44.048 = 5.292
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.292) = -0.291
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.291| = 0.291

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51875, race ID 4674 (538 database).