2010 House · MN-1
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 34%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.34% · Republican 44.05%
D+5.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 34 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 49.340 − 44.048 = 5.292
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (5.292) = 10.709
- Absolute miss = |10.709| = 10.709
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51874, race ID 4674 (538 database).