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2010 House · MN-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 558 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.34% · Republican 44.05%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.340 − 44.048 = 5.292
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.292) = 3.709
  4. Absolute miss = |3.709| = 3.709

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51873, race ID 4674 (538 database).