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2010 House · MI-7

National Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 49%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.38% · Republican 50.16%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 49 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.377 − 50.155 = -4.778
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-4.778) = -8.222
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.222| = 8.222

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51861, race ID 4665 (538 database).