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2010 House · MI-3

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 46%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.47% · Republican 59.68%

R+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 46 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.468 − 59.677 = -22.209
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-22.209) = 13.208
  4. Absolute miss = |13.208| = 13.208

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51852, race ID 4661 (538 database).