2010 House · MI-1
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 42%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.87% · Republican 51.94%
R+11.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 42 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 40.866 − 51.941 = -11.075
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-11.075) = 9.075
- Absolute miss = |9.075| = 9.075
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51852, race ID 4659 (538 database).