2010 House · ME-2
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 250 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 29%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.13% · Republican 44.87%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 29 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 55.132 − 44.868 = 10.264
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (10.264) = 9.737
- Absolute miss = |9.737| = 9.737
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51846, race ID 4640 (538 database).