2010 Governor · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 28% · Republican 32.9%
R+4.9
The certified result
Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%
R+26.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 28 − 32.9 = -4.90
- Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
- Signed miss = -4.90 − (-26.672) = 21.772
- Absolute miss = |21.772| = 21.772
The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51846, race ID 1292 (538 database).