2010 House · ME-2
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 305 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 30%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.13% · Republican 44.87%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 30 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 55.132 − 44.868 = 10.264
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (10.264) = 8.737
- Absolute miss = |8.737| = 8.737
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51845, race ID 4640 (538 database).