2010 Governor · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 20% · Republican 32%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%
R+26.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 20 − 32 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-26.672) = 14.672
- Absolute miss = |14.672| = 14.672
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51845, race ID 1292 (538 database).