2010 House · MD-1
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 637 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.98% · Republican 54.08%
R+12.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 41.979 − 54.084 = -12.105
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-12.105) = 1.105
- Absolute miss = |1.105| = 1.105
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51837, race ID 4641 (538 database).