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2010 House · MA-10

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.87% · Republican 42.38%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.873 − 42.384 = 4.489
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.489) = -1.489
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.489| = 1.489

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51835, race ID 4658 (538 database).