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2010 House · KY-6

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.08% · Republican 49.81%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.084 − 49.813 = 0.271
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.271) = 3.729
  4. Absolute miss = |3.729| = 3.729

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51817, race ID 4631 (538 database).