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2010 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 588 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.68% · Republican 44.01%

D+10.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.679 − 44.007 = 10.672
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.672) = -6.672
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.672| = 6.672

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51809, race ID 4628 (538 database).