2010 House · KS-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 534 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 54%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.45% · Republican 58.79%
R+22.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 54 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 36.455 − 58.793 = -22.338
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-22.338) = 6.338
- Absolute miss = |6.338| = 6.338
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51802, race ID 4625 (538 database).