Skip to content

2010 House · IN-9

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.28% · Republican 52.34%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.279 − 52.338 = -10.059
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-10.059) = 12.059
  4. Absolute miss = |12.059| = 12.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51797, race ID 4616 (538 database).