Skip to content

2010 House · IL-11

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 829 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 55%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.65% · Republican 57.35%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 55 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.651 − 57.349 = -14.698
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-14.698) = 4.698
  4. Absolute miss = |4.698| = 4.698

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51764, race ID 4599 (538 database).